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Spatio-Temporal Spread of Covid-19 in Children Aged 0-11 Years at Central Java Province Indonesia Using Geographical Weight Regression


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/iremos.v15i6.22048

Abstract


During the COVID-19 pandemic, children under the age of 12 are the most vulnerable age group to health concerns. The goal of this study was to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Central Java children using the GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression) approach. The data source is the Central Java Provincial Health Office, and the study objects are 35 cities and districts in Central Java province. The data obtained are the number of COVID-19 cases in children aged 0-11 years, the total number of Covid-19 cases, the number of PCR tests per day, the number of vaccinations and the number of health care facilities per city and district per month from March 2020 to November 2021. Hotspot analysis and the GWR approach were used to examine data in semesters 1–4 (S1–S4). From S1 to S4, the number of COVID-19 cases in children increased. Areas that became hotspots for more than two semesters were Semarang City, Semarang Regency, Banyumas, Cilacap, Kendal, and Demak. According to the GWR analysis in S1-S4, the total number of COVID-19 cases, PCR tests per day, vaccinations, and health care facilities all affect the number of COVID-19 patients in children by more than 75%. The total number of COVID-19 cases has a significant impact on the number of COVID-19 cases in children but the number of health care facilities has no effect. The results of the GWR prediction of COVID-19 cases in children show that the cities of Semarang and Banyumas became areas with a larger number of COVID-19 cases in two semesters.  According to the hotspot and GWR analysis, the cities of Semarang and Banyumas are regions to be on the lookout for in the spread of COVID-19 cases in S1-S4.
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Keywords


Spatio Temporal; Hotspot; GWR; COVID-19; Children

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