Impact of Population Income on the Number of Forest Fires: a Case Study

Oyuna Vladimirovna Bazarova; Aleksandr Vladimirovich Bazarov; Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy; Roman Sergeevich Sychev; Evgeniy Borisovich Atutov

doi:10.15866/iremos.v15i1.21777

Impact of Population Income on the Number of Forest Fires: a Case Study

Oyuna Vladimirovna Bazarova⁽¹⁾, Aleksandr Vladimirovich Bazarov⁽²⁾, Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy^(3*), Roman Sergeevich Sychev⁽⁴⁾, Evgeniy Borisovich Atutov⁽⁵⁾

^(*) Corresponding author

Authors' affiliations

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/iremos.v15i1.21777

Abstract

In the regions of Siberia and the Far East of Russia, anthropogenic causes of forest fires reach 80-93%. The article examines the change in the number of fires in an environment of deteriorating financial conditions of the population. Statistical analysis of panel data is used as a research approach. The following models have been considered and evaluated: linear regression, Fixed Effects model (FE-model), and random effects model (RE-model). Almost all the models have showed good results related to the influence of socio-economic factors on the number of forest fires. The dynamics of real monthly wages has turned out to be statistically significant in influencing the dynamics of the number of forest fires. The Poisson RE-model is the most adequate, since visits to the forest that affect the occurrence of forest fires are often accidental.
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Keywords

Forest Fires; Panel Data Analysis; Wage; Temperature; Rainfall

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