Email this article 
New Intelligent Economic Modelling Techniques: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Face the Question of the Greek Current Account Deficit Sustainability
(*) Corresponding author
DOI's assignment:
the author of the article can submit here a request for assignment of a DOI number to this resource!
Cost of the service: euros 10,00 (for a DOI)
Abstract
This paper offers an alternative approach to policy modeling aiming at considering the question of the Greek current account deficit sustainability using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM). Given that the large Greek current account deficit figures reported during the past few years have become the source of increasing concern regarding its sustainability and bearing in mind the wide variety of views on this issue, we have chosen to resort to an entirely different technique compared to traditional policy modeling. The paper concludes that despite its size, the current account deficit of Greece can be considered sustainable. This conclusion, however, must not be taken as neglecting the structural weaknesses that lead to such a deficit. In fact, even in the absence of any financing requirements these high deficit figures point to serious competitiveness losses with everything that these may entail for the future performance of the Greek economy
Copyright © 2013 Praise Worthy Prize - All rights reserved.
Keywords
References
B. Kosko, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol. 24, pp. 65-75, 1986.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0020-7373(86)80040-2
B. Kosko, Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems, A dynamic systems approach to Machine Intelligence, 2nd ed., Prentice Hall, London, 1992.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/141408.774013
F. O. Karray, C. De Silva, Soft Computing and Intelligent System Design, Theory Tools and Applications, Pearson Education Limited ISBN 0321116178, 2004.
L. A. Zadeh L.A, A theory of approximate reasoning. Machine Intelligen., Vol. 9 (J. Hayes, D. Michie and L.I. Mikulich, Eds.), New York: Halstead Press, 1979.
S. Kim, K. C. Lee, Fuzzy Implications of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with Emphasis on Fuzzy Causal Relations and Fuzzy Partially Causal Relationship, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 97, pp.303-313, 1998.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0165-0114(96)00349-1
B. Kosko, Hidden Patterns in Combined and Adaptive Knowledge Networks, in the First IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-86), Vol. 2, pp.377-393, 1988.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0888-613x(88)90111-9
Y. Miao, Z. Q. Liu, On causal inference in Fuzzy Cognitive Maps,IEEE transactions on Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 8, no1, pp. 107-115, 2000.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/91.824780
G. E. Pelaez, J. B. Bowles, Using Cognitive Maps as a System Model for Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Information Science, Vol. 88, pp.177-199, 1996.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0020-0255(95)00161-1
N. H. Mateou, A. S. Andreou, A Framework for Developing Intelligent Decision Support Systems Using Evolutionary Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 19, no 2, pp. 1-18, 2008.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cec.2005.1554768
L. A. Zadeh, Precisiated Natural Language (PNL), AI Magazine, Vol. 25, pp. 74-91, 2004.
N. H. Mateou, G. A. Zombanakis, A. S. Andreou, Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: The Cyprus Issue, Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation (CIMCA2003), Vienna, Austria, pp. 760-770, 12-14 February 2003.
N. H. Mateou, A. P. Hadjiprokopis, A. S. Andreou, Fuzzy Influence Diagrams: An Alternative Approach to Decision Making Under Uncertainty, International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation (CIMCA2005), conference proceedings published as books by IEEE (USA -forthcoming) Vienna, Austria, 28-30 November 2005.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cimca.2005.1631242
A. Saffioti, A Hybrid framework for representing Uncertain Knowledge, in the 8th AAAI Conference, Boston, MA, pp.653-658, 1990.
C. Carlos, An updated survey of GA-based multi-objective optimization techniques, ACM Computing Surveys, Vol.32, no.2, pp.109-143, 2000.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/358923.358929
W. S Grantham, B. Lee, A Chaotic Limit Cycle Paradox, Dynamics and Control, pp. 157-171, 1993.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01968529
K. C. Lee, W. J. Lee, O. B. Kwon, J. H. Han, P. I. Yu, A Strategic Planning Simulation Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map Knowledge and Differential Game, Simulation, Vol. 71, pp. 316-327, 1998.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/003754979807100503
O. Blanchard, F. Giavazzi, Current Account Deficits ιn τhe Euro Area: The End οf the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, pp. 147-209, 2002.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/eca.2003.0001
A. S. Andreou, N. H. Mateou, G. A. Zombanakis, Integrating Fuzzy Knowledge Base to Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Facilitate Decision-Making, WSEAS Transactions on Systems, Issue 1, Vol. 3, pp.661-667, 2004.
D. Dubois, H. Prade, Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Applications, Academic Press, Orlando, FL, 1980.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0076-5392(09)60133-8
C. Freund, Current Account Adjustment in Industrial Countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(8), 1278-1298, 2005.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2005.08.014
Bank of Greece (2007, I): Report of the Governor for the Year 2006.
Bank of Greece (2007, II): Monetary Policy October.
Bank of Greece (2008, II): Monetary Policy, October.
Bank of Greece (2008, I): Report of the Governor for the Year 2007.
C. Mann, Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable?”, Finance and Development, 37(1), 42-45, 2000.
J. Holman, Is the Large U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable?, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. 1st Quarter 2001, 86(1), 5-23, 2001.
R. Cooper, Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? Will It Be Sustained?, Brookings-Papers-on-Economic-Activity, 0(1), 2001.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/eca.2001.0002
C. Bergsten, J. Williamson J., Dollar adjustment: How far? Against What?, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, Special Report 17, viii, 294, 2004.
M. Obstfeld, K. Rogoff, The Unsustainable U. S. Current Account Position Revisited, NEBR Working Paper No. 10869, 2004.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10869
S. Edwards, Is the U.S. Current Account Sustainable? And if Not, How Costly is the Adjustment Likely to be? NBER Working Paper No. 11541, 2005.
CRS Report for Congress, Is the U. S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable?, 2005.
A. Makin, Is the Current Account Deficit Sustainable?, Australian-Economic-Review, 0(86), 29-33, 1989.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00322.x
F. G. Milesi, A. Razin, Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits, NBER Working Papers: 5467, 1996.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w5467
N. Roubini, P. Watchel, Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics, Working Papers, 1997.
A. Baharumshah, E. Lau, S. Fountas, Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach, Journal-of-Economic-Integration, 20(3), 514-29, 2005.
http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2005.20.3.514
K. Church, Properties of the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Treasury Model, National-Institute-Economic-Review, 0(169), 96-104, 1999.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795019916900110
M. Bussière, M. Fratzscher, G. Müller, Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries – An Intertemporal Approach, ECB Working Paper Series No. 311, February, 2004.
S. Pantazides, The Sustainability of the Greek Balance of Payments, Economic Bulleting – Bank of Greece (in Greek), 1999.
N. Apergis, K. Katrakilidis, N. Tabakis, Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece, Applied-Economics-Letters, 7(9), 599-603, 2000.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850050059087
T. Anastasatos, High Current Account Deficit, the Most Important Problem facing the Greek Economy in the Medium-Term, Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank EFG Economic Research, 2008.
S. Husted, The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 74, pp. 159-66, 1992.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2109554
IMF, Greece: Selected Issues, Chapter I: Greece's Competitiveness Deficit: How Big is it and How Could it be Unwound?, 2007.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Please send any question about this web site to info@praiseworthyprize.com
Copyright © 2005-2024 Praise Worthy Prize
