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Comparative Analysis of Wind Speed and Energy Potential Assessment of Two Distribution Models in Medan, Indonesia


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/iree.v18i4.22725

Abstract


Wind is an environmentally friendly form of energy and currently many researchers focus on the development of this energy, because this energy can be used as a promising future Renewable Energy Source (RES). The development of equipment for the use of this energy is an expected and necessary contribution, one of which is as a tool to analyse its energy potential against the probability density function (Pdf). These two models (Weibull and Rayleigh distributions) are proposed for the analysis and the evaluation of wind speed potential in Medan, Indonesia. Data for analysis and evaluation have been taken for three years (2017-2019) obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (MCGA), owned by the Government of Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to get the best model proposed to be applied. Statistical analysis and evaluation with three coefficients, namely the correlation model (R2), Chi-Square (χ2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) has been chosen as a model that can be applied. In addition to analysis and evaluation, the form factor (k) and the scale (c) are also determined under different conditions and situations. These two parameters are very important to determine the potential of wind energy in Medan, Indonesia. It has been found out that the magnitude of R2 for Weibull distribution is between 0.934-0.978 in May and June, while for Rayleigh distribution it is between 0.195-0.788. The wind speed for three years (2017-2019) had minimum, maximum, and average speeds between 2.33-2.71 m/s, 7.35-7.71 m/s, and 4.91-5.06 m/s, respectively. On the other hand, the annual electrical power is about 72.21-79.46 W/m2, while the energy is about 623.88-686.55 J. The annual k and c values vary, with k ranging from 4,560-5,266 and c ranging from 5,347-5,496, respectively, with an average k of 4,914 and c of 5,405.
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Keywords


Wind Speed; Distribution Model Comparison; Probability Density Function (Pdf)

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References


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