Market Penetration Analysis of Electric and CNG Technologies in Colombian Freight Transportation

Daniel Aguirre; Javier Rosero Garcia; Oscar Duarte

doi:10.15866/irecon.v6i2.15091

Market Penetration Analysis of Electric and CNG Technologies in Colombian Freight Transportation

Daniel Aguirre⁽¹⁾, Javier Rosero Garcia^(2*), Oscar Duarte⁽³⁾

^(*) Corresponding author

Authors' affiliations

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/irecon.v6i2.15091

Abstract

In order to fulfill the commitments of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, the Colombian transportation system has become a central issue in the public policy design. This article presents a system dynamics oriented model to simulate the adoption of new vehicle technologies in the Colombian freight transportation. Additionally, a PESTLE analysis is used to describe the interaction between political, legal, economic, technological, social and environmental variables that influence the transport system. Five different scenarios are simulated to understand the relevance and impact of the technological and political factors on the selection probability of each technology. In a favorable political and technological scenario one of the most relevant results obtained is the percentage share: values between 16% and 18% for electric and hybrid technologies by 2032. These results will help to formulate new strategies related to the replacement of vehicle technologies.
Copyright © 2018 Praise Worthy Prize - All rights reserved.

Keywords

Freight Transport; Electric Vehicle; Hybrid Vehicle; System Dynamics; Market Penetration; PESTLE Analysis

Full Text:

PDF

References

M. R. Tight, A. L. Bristow, A. Pridmore and A. D.May, What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?, Transport Policy 2005, vol.12, pp. 235-244. Retrieved in February 2017, available on: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X05000211.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.02.002

OECD Better Policies for Better lives / IEA International Energy Agency, Key World Statistics 2014,9 rue de la Fedration,75739 Paris Cedex 15, Francia, Tech. Rep.19, Nov. 2014.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), Key World Energy Statistics 2014, Pars 22 September 2014, available online at: http://www.iea.org/.

IEA. 2015, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights,2015 Edition, p. 7, Paris, France.

B. M. Quintana y J. Rosero, Modelo de masificación de vehículos eléctricos en Bogotá D.C., Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá 2014.

R. de la Cruz, L. G. Andrián, M. Loterszpil, Colombia: Toward a High-Income Country with Social Mobility,Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. ISBN: 1597822647.

H. Winkler, Climate Change Mitigation Actions in Five Developing Countries,1st Edition, Routledge 2015, New York USA. ISBN: 978-1-138-8414-2.

Herrera, M., Rosero Garcia, J., Casas, O., Systemic Analysis of the Adoption of Electric Vehicle Technologies in Colombia, (2017) International Review of Mechanical Engineering (IREME), 11 (4), pp. 256-269.
http://dx.doi.org/10.15866/ireme.v11i4.11493

S. Liu, K. P. Triantis, and S. Sarangi, A framework for evaluating the dynamic impacts of a congestion pricing policy for a transportation socioeconomic system, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., vol. 44, no. 8, pp. 596-608, 2010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.04.001

B. Propfe, D. Kreyenberg, J. Wind and S. Schmid, Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol.38 No.13, pp. 5201-5208, 2013.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2013.02.049

J. D. Sterman, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, no. December 1999. 2000.

J. M Garca, Theory and practical exercises of System Dynamics, 3rd. Edition, Barcelona Spain 2018. ISBN: 9788460998044.

V. Cantillo, J. Holguin-Veras and M. Jaller, The Colombian Strategic Freight Transport Model based on Product Analysis, Promet-Traffic & Transportation, Vol 26. No.6, 487-496, 2014.
http://dx.doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v26i6.1460

E. A. Velandia, Energía Eléctrica:Alternativa para un transporte urbano sustentable en Colombia, 1st. Edition, vol.1,Codensa S.A 2009 Bogotá D.C,Colombia,ISBN: 9789584460165.

California Air Resources Board, Battery Cost for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles, Advanced Clean Transit, California, August 2016. Available online at: www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/actmeetings.htm.

S. Nauman and H. Vogelpohl, Models and Methods for the Evaluation and Optimal Application of Battery Charging and Switching Technologies for Electric Busses, Germany June 2012, available online at: http://www.cactus-emobility.eu.

Miller, J. F. (2010), Analysis of current and projected manufacturing costs of electric, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, EVS25, Shenzhen, China, November 2010, available online at: www.evs24.org.

CALSTART. Inc, I-710 Project Zero-Emission Truck Commercialization Study Final Report, Pasadena California,USA November 2013.

European Environment Agency, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxemburg 2016, available online at: http://europa.eu, ISBN: 978-92-9213-806-6

W. S. Wayne, N. N. Clark, R. D Nine and D. Elefante, A Comparison of Emissions and Fuel Economy from Hybrid-Electric and Conventional-Drive Transit Buses, Energy and Fuels 2004, Vol. 18, pp.257-270. Available online at: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ef030096t.

P. Scallan MBA, Office of Public Works Report for the Smith Newton 10 t Electric Truck, Office of Public Works V2.1, September 2011, available online at: http://www.seai.ie

Refbacks

There are currently no refbacks.

Username
Password
Remember me