Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Heuristic Driven Hybrid Analytical-Artificial Intelligence Concept for Risk Prediction in Construction Megaprojects


(*) Corresponding author


Authors' affiliations


DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v12i6.20864

Abstract


In this paper, a cross analytical-Artificial Intelligence (AI) solution for target centric risk identification and clustering has been developed for better project planning and risk management. A mixed research paradigm has been initially applied in order to identify the optimal set of risk factors based on the opinion gathered from experienced subject matter experts. The statistical analysis has revealed the key factors adversely affecting project objectives. In order to enable target centric risk prediction, the processed data have been exploited by the proposed Heuristic Driven Clustering-based Target-Centric Risk Prediction Model for Construction Megaprojects (HCTCRP). First, the proposed model has synthesized a set of 40000 samples containing the different risk factors and their variation with respect to the project endeavors. Subsequently, by processing significant predictor test and Firefly algorithm based Fuzzy C-Means clustering (FAFCM), the proposed model has predicted the high-risk factors and the sub-risk components. This significantly contributes to the knowledge base and may be useful for better risk management.
Copyright © 2021 Praise Worthy Prize - All rights reserved.

Keywords


Artificial Intellligence; Construction Megaprojects; Heuristic Driven Clustering; Risk Identification; Risk Prediction; Risk Management

Full Text:

PDF


References


R. Miller and D.R Lessard, The Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects Shaping Institutions, Risks and Governance (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2000)
https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/6478.001.0001

L. Gorinevsky,Y. Xin and C Cheng, Understanding the value of project management from a stakeholder's perspective: Case study of mega-project management, Project Management Journal, Vol.40(Issue1): 99-109, 2009.
https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20099

J. Eweje, R. Turner and R Müller, Maximizing strategic value from megaprojects: The influence of information-feed on decision-making by the project manager. International Journal of Project Management, Vol.30(Issue 6):639-621, 2012.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.01.004

G.Muneeswaran, P. Manoharan, P.O. Awoyera and A. Adesina, A statistical approach to assess the schedule delays and risks in Indian construction industry.International Journal of Construction Management, Vol 20, (Issue 5): 450-461,August 2018.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2018.1484991

S.Thapanont, C. Santi and X. Pruethipong, Causes of delay on highway construction projects in Thailand, MATEC Web of Conferences, Vol. 192, Article No. 02014, August 2018.
https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201819202014

I. Kardes, A. Ozturk, S. T. Cavusgil, and E. Cavusgil, Managing global megaprojects: Complexity and risk management. International Business Review, Vol.22(Issue 6), 905-917,2013.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2013.01.003

H. T. Dimitriou, E.J. Ward, and P. Wright, Mega transport projects- Beyond the "iron triangle:" Findings from the OMEGA research programme. Progress in Planning, Vol. 86, 1-43. 2013.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2013.03.001

B. Flyvbjerg, N. Bruzelius, and W. Rothengatter, Megaprojects and risk: An anatomy of ambition (1st Ed.), (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2003)
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107050891

Z. Rachid, B. Toufik, and B. Mohammed, Causes of schedule delays in construction projects in Algeria, International Journal of Construction Management, Vol. 19 (Issue 5): 371-381, March 2018.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2018.1435234

A. De Palma, N. Picard, and L. Andrieu, Risk in transport investments. Networks & Spatial Economics, Vol 12(Issue 2):187-204. 2012.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-009-9109-8

Taraziya, R., Abd Ali, R., Survey on the Most Significant Factors Affecting the Delivery Process of Construction Activities During Execution Phase in Iraq, (2020) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 11 (3), pp. 114-120.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v11i3.17700

A. Sandhyavitri, Stochastic analyses for managing risk of delay in Duri oil construction projects, Indonesia, International Journal of Construction Management, August 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2019.1644762

H.J.Thamhain, Leading technology teams. Project Management Journal, Vol 35(Isue 4): 35-47, 2004.
https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280403500405

H.J.Thamhain, Managing risks in complex projects. Project Management Journal, Vol 44(Issue 2):20-35,2013.
https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21325

J.Eweje, R. Turner, R.Müller, Maximizing strategic value from megaprojects: The influence of information-feed on decision-making by the project manager. International Journal of Project Management, Vol 30(Issue 6): 639-621.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.01.004

Hamid, W., Waterman, A., Analysis of the Main Causes of Cost Overruns in Construction Industry in Developing Countries and the UK, (2018) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 9 (3), pp. 105-113.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v9i3.14525

Sudarsana, D., Sanjaya, P., Development of Delay Claim with a Traffic Volume Approach of the Road National Improvement Project, (2019) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 10 (3), pp. 142-147.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v10i3.16221

Sanchez-Matellanes, S., Rodriguez-Hernandez, J., Castro-Fresno, D., Collazos-Arias, F., Review of Climate Risk Analysis in Infrastructures, (2018) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 9 (1), pp. 1-10.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v9i1.13465

Aswed, G., Mohammed, H., Ahmed, M., Factors Affecting Safety in Construction Projects, (2020) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 11 (3), pp. 135-140.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v11i3.17142

S. Marcelino-Sádaba, A. Pérez-Ezcurdia, A.M.Echeverría Lazcano, and P Villanueva, Project risk management methodology for small firms, International Journal of Project Management, Vol 32(Issue 2):327-340,2014.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.009

B.C.Esty, Why study large projects? An introduction to research on project finance, European Financial Management, Vol 10(Issue 2): 213-224,2004.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1354-7798.2004.00247.x

S. Maiti and J-h. Choi, An evidence-based approach to health and safety management in megaprojects, International Journal of Construction Management, 1-13, 2019.

Prince Boateng et al., A system dynamic approach to risks description in mega-projects development. semanticscholar.org, 593-603.2012.
https://doi.org/10.5592/otmcj.2012.3.3

M. Bhandari, Management of Risk in Construction Projects in Maharashtra. International Journal of Engineering Science Invention, Vol 3(Issue 1):14-17,2014.

B.C Debalina, P. Jagadeesh, Mega-Project Risk Prediction In Construction Management, Journal of critical reviews, Vol 7(Issue 5): 2674-2687,2020.

V.A.Greiman, Megaproject management: Lesson on risk and project management from the Big Dig (Wiley, 2013)
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118671092

L.Lehtiranta, Risk perceptions and approaches in multi-organizations: A research review 2000-2012. International Journal of Project Management, Vol 32(Issue 4): 640-653, 2014.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.09.002

M.F.Hasan and M.S.Mohammed,Time Overrun Model for Construction Projects in Iraq by Using Fuzzy Logic, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, Vol. 9 (Issue 11): 2593-2607,2018.

B. Flyvbjerg, What you Should Know about Megaprojects and Why, Project Management Journal, Vol.24(Issue 1):6-18, 2014.
https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409

P.Thapanont, C. Santi and X.Pruethipong, Causes of delay on highway construction projects in Thailand, MATEC Web of Conferences, Vol. 192, Article No. 02014, August 2018.
https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201819202014

N. Vaishta, D.Satish Chandra, and S.S.Asadi, Analysis of Risk assessment in Construction of Highway Projects Using Reletive Importance Index Method, International Journal of Mechanic Engineering and Technology (IJMET), Vol 9, (Issue3): March 2018.

N.V.Chawla, K.W Bowyer, L.O Hall, W.P Kegelmeyer, SMOTE: Synthetic minority over-sampling technique. J. Artif. Intell.Res.,Vol 16, 321-357. 2002.
https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.953

D. B.Chattapadhyay, J. Putta and R.M R Pannem, Risk Identification, Assessments, and Prediction for Mega Construction Projects: A Risk Prediction Paradigm Based on Cross Analytical-Machine Learning Model, Buildings, Vol 11 (Issue 4):172, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11040172


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Please send any question about this web site to info@praiseworthyprize.com
Copyright © 2005-2024 Praise Worthy Prize