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Road Traffic Casualties in West Bank: Trends Analysis and Modeling


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v12i2.19907

Abstract


Traffic accidents are considered one of the main causes of deaths and injuries in developing countries. Despite the number of traffic road casualties is still increasing generally, this issue is still not highlighted due to the poor awareness and lack of records. This study presents the trends analysis of road traffic casualties in West Bank and the prediction for the situation during the next 10 years. Relevant data have been acquired from different sources for the period of 2002-2019. Next, the data for the subject period have been analyzed and a prediction model for road Traffic casualties has been developed based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology and using traffic accidents, number of vehicles and population for the subject period as predictors. Based on the developed model, a general increasing trend is observed during the studied period, which is expected to continue during the next years. Moreover, the results have showed that the number of traffic accidents/1000 vehicle and the number of casualties/100,000 population in West Bank are relatively higher than the ones for other Arab countries.
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Keywords


ARIMA; Accidents; Injuries; Fatalities; Crash Casualties; Traffic Prediction; Palestine

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