Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Duration Forecasting Capability of Critical Path-Focused Earned Duration Management


(*) Corresponding author


Authors' affiliations


DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/irea.v12i1.23777

Abstract


Project management aims to evaluate a project's cost, schedule, and technical performance to deliver the best product or service at the lowest cost and within the shortest timeframe by enhancing a balance between cost, time, and quality of the work objective. Earned Duration Management (EDM) in project time monitoring and forecasting focuses solely on time-related factors to achieve the objectives. However, many studies state that for projects with multiple parallel activities of varying durations, the earned duration factors/indicators could not provide significant forecasts about the critical-path job details of the project. The Critical Path focused Earned Duration Management (CP-EDM) technique has been introduced to enhance this. This study compares EDM and CP-EDM techniques on 69 real-life construction sector project data to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of project duration forecasting. The results have showed that 69.56% of cases had better results by applying CP-EDM, demonstrating that focusing on the critical path instead of the entire project enhances the accuracy of project duration forecasting.
Copyright © 2024 Praise Worthy Prize - All rights reserved.

Keywords


Duration Forecasting; Critical Path; Earned Duration Management; Earned Schedule

Full Text:

PDF


References


C. Bergerud, "Earned Value Management is not just for Government Contracting," PMI ® Global Congress 2015, no. October 2015, pp. 1-10, 2015, [Online].
Available:
http://www.pmi.org/learning/library/value-management-not-just-government-contract-9855

R. Y. Dashkov and N. I. Komkov, "Integrated Approach to Large-Scale Project Management at Sakhalin Energy," Stud Russ Econ Dev, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 74-83, Feb. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700722010051

W. Lipke, "Schedule performance analysis from EVM measures," PM World Today, vol. XIII, no. I, pp. 53-61, 2011.

H. Y. Ong, C. Wang, and N. Zainon, "Developing a Quality-Embedded EVM Tool to Facilitate the Iron Triangle in Architectural, Construction, and Engineering Practices," J Constr Eng Manag, vol. 144, no. 9, 2018.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001533

W. Lipke, "Schedule is different," The Measurable News, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 31-34, 2003.

W. Lipke, "Applying management reserve to software project management," Journal of Defense Software Engineering, pp. 17-21, March 1999.

L. Judson and V. K. Paul, "Critical Uncertainty Factors Impacting Building Construction Projects in India," Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 1854-1863, Sep. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.13189/cea.2022.100512

S. Vandevoorde and M. Vanhoucke, "A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 289-302, 2006.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2005.10.004

H. Khamooshi and H. Golafshani, "EDM: Earned Duration Management, a new approach to schedule performance management and measurement," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 1019-1041, 2014.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.11.002

S. H. Ali and M. M. K. Al-Zaid, "The Role of Construction Technology Techniques in Improving the Performance of Contemporary Housing Complexes, Bismayah City in Iraq: A Case Study," Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 531-543, Mar. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.13189/cea.2022.100212

Kapuganti, C., Balaji, K., Santhosh Kumar, T., Prasad, I., Grey Earned Duration Management: a New Schedule Monitoring Approach, (2023) International Review of Civil Engineering (IRECE), 14 (4), pp. 291-299.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irece.v14i4.20968

M. Vanhoucke, Measuring Time : Improving Project Performance Using Earned Value Management, 1st ed., vol. 136. Springer US, 2009.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1014-1_1

Martens and M. Vanhoucke, "Integrating corrective actions in project time forecasting using exponential smoothing," Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 36, no. 5, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000806

W. Lipke, "Applying statistical forecasting of project duration to earned schedule-longest path," PM World J., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1-13, 2015.

R. E. Wendell, T. J. Lowe, and M. M. Gordon, "Dangers in using earned duration and other earned value metrics to measure a project's schedule performance," Cent Eur J Oper Res, pp. 1-16, Dec. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-022-00830-4

D. A. Wood, "A critical-path focus for earned duration increases its sensitivity for project-duration monitoring and forecasting in deterministic, fuzzy and stochastic network analysis," Journal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 359-386, 2018.
https://doi.org/10.3233/JCM-180795

J. Batselier and M. Vanhoucke, "Construction and evaluation framework for a real-life project database," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 697-710, 2015.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.09.004

F. Acebes, D. Poza, J. M. González-Varona, and A. López-Paredes, "Stochastic Earned Duration Analysis for Project Schedule Management," Engineering, vol. 9, pp. 148-161, Feb. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.07.019

J. Batselier and M. Vanhoucke, "Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 33, no. 7, pp. 1588-1596, Oct. 2015.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003

Mahmoudi, S. A. Javed, and X. Deng, "Earned duration management under uncertainty," Soft comput, vol. 25, no. 14, pp. 8921-8940, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-021-05782-6

Roghabadi, M. A., & Moselhi, O. (2022). Forecasting project duration using risk-based earned duration management. International Journal of Construction Management, 22(16), 3077-3087.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1840272

M. Hamzeh and S. M. Mousavi, "A New Fuzzy Approach for Project Time Assessment under Uncertain Conditions," in Proceedings of 2019 15th Iran International Industrial Engineering Conference, IIIEC 2019, 2019, pp. 76-80.
https://doi.org/10.1109/IIIEC.2019.8720733

M. Hamzeh, S. M. Mousavi, and H. Gitinavard, "Imprecise earned duration model for time evaluation of construction projects with risk considerations," Autom Constr, vol. 111, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102993

Barrientos-Orellana, P. Ballesteros-Pérez, D. Mora-Melia, M. C. González-Cruz, and M. Vanhoucke, "Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management," Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 1449-1469, Mar. 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045

G. Erdoğan and Ç. Polatoğlu, "Building performance evaluation for adaptive reuse: A multi-criteria approach," Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 2427-2440, Dec. 2021.
https://doi.org/10.13189/cea.2021.090728

J. Batselier and M. Vanhoucke, "Empirical Evaluation of Earned Value Management Forecasting Accuracy for Time and Cost," J Constr Eng Manag, vol. 141, no. 11, pp. 1-13, 2015.
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001008

"Real data | Operations Research & Scheduling Research Group," Aug. 2019.
https://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be/research/data/realdata (accessed Feb. 27, 2023).

C. B. Kapuganti, P. Y. Kumar, M. S. Teja, A. Akhil, and R. Barbhuiya, "Project schedule monitoring by earned duration management (EDM)," International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 518-522, Mar. 2019.

Jaya, N., Sudarsana, D., Development of Contingency Value Analysis Model Using Cost-Time Risk Integration and WBS-Pareto Hybrid in Construction Projects, (2023) International Journal on Engineering Applications (IREA), 11 (2), pp. 121-127.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irea.v11i2.23235

W.-L. Shiau and P. Y. K. Chau, "Understanding behavioral intention to use a cloud computing classroom: A multiple model comparison approach," Information and Management, vol. 53, no. 3, pp. 355-365, 2016.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2015.10.004

Chandrakala, K., Rajan, P., A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Price Forecasting in Electricity Market with Smart Bidding Strategies and Wind Energy Influence, (2022) International Review on Modelling and Simulations (IREMOS), 15 (6), pp. 414-424.
https://doi.org/10.15866/iremos.v15i6.22653

B. Kapuganti, K. V. G. D. Balaji, and T. Santhosh Kumar, "Comparison of project monitoring and controlling methods: Earned value management (EVM) & earned duration management (EDM)," International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 549-555, Mar. 2019.

Manbetova, Z., Abdimuratov, Z., Chezhimbayeva, K., Zhazykbayeva, Z., Imankul, M., Comparative Analysis of Methods and Model of Protection Against Electromagnetic Fields in Cellular Communication, (2021) International Journal on Communications Antenna and Propagation (IRECAP), 11 (1), pp. 1-8.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irecap.v11i1.20062

Raharjo, J., Budiharjo, S., Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Auto Regressive-Candidates Area Shifting Technique, (2021) International Journal on Engineering Applications (IREA), 9 (5), pp. 286-294.
https://doi.org/10.15866/irea.v9i5.20668


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Please send any question about this web site to info@praiseworthyprize.com
Copyright © 2005-2024 Praise Worthy Prize