A Prospective Study of Electric Vehicle Massification in Bogotá

Blas Morales; Javier Rosero Garcia

doi:10.15866/ireme.v11i1.9828

A Prospective Study of Electric Vehicle Massification in Bogotá

Blas Morales⁽¹⁾, Javier Rosero Garcia^(2*)

^(*) Corresponding author

Authors' affiliations

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15866/ireme.v11i1.9828

Abstract

Increasing air pollution, increasing oil prices and diminishing oil reserves all together lead to the search of alternative fuels for mobility. This paper proposes an EV (Electric Vehicle) massification projection model for the city of Bogota, based on a dynamic system methodology. A three steps model was formulated: first step considers technical and economic requirements for different EV technologies, a second step includes the massification model proposed and the final step consider a projection for EV quantity. Results of an EV massive deployment potential study for Bogota are presented. The EV massive use projection model here presented considering both the needs of potential users and EV´s features; the proposed model also analyzes four different EV technologies considered as four different future scenarios. A growth of 2% to 8% in Bogota´s EV fleet for the next 20 years has been estimated by applying this model.
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Keywords

Massification; Dynamic Models; Electric Vehicles (EV); Internal-Combustion Engine (ICE)

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